Merseyside Showdown: Liverpool's Title Charge Faces Everton Test At Anfield
The Merseyside derby heads to Anfield as table-topping Liverpool face a rejuvenated Everton under David Moyes. With Liverpool dominant but Everton showing recent resilience, this historic rivalry promises tension and tactical intrigue in a fixture crucial for both clubs' seasons.
The Merseyside derby heads to Anfield as table-topping Liverpool face a rejuvenated Everton under David Moyes. With Liverpool dominant but Everton showing recent resilience, this historic rivalry promises tension and tactical intrigue in a fixture crucial for both clubs' seasons.
Current Form and Standings
Liverpool continue their impressive campaign at the summit of the Premier League table with 70 points from 29 matches (21 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss). The Reds under Arne Slot have established themselves as the team to beat, scoring 69 goals while conceding just 27. However, they enter this derby following a surprising 2-1 defeat to Newcastle United that may have slightly dented their confidence.
Everton, meanwhile, sit in 15th position with 34 points, having experienced a significant improvement since David Moyes returned for his second spell at the club. The Toffees have been difficult to beat in recent weeks, stringing together a series of draws that has helped them maintain distance from the relegation zone. Their resilience was evident in their most recent outings with draws against West Ham (1-1), Wolves (1-1), and Bournemouth (1-1).
Premier League Standings
Liverpool
Position: 1st
Points: 70
Record: 21W-7D-1L
Everton
Position: 15th
Points: 34
Record: 7W-12D-9L
Key Performance Indicators
Metric
Liverpool
Everton
Goals Scored
69
32
Goals Conceded
27
41
Clean Sheets
11
7
Avg. Possession
64.2%
43.8%
Shots per Game
16.0
9.2
Historical Context and Recent Meetings
The Merseyside derby ranks among English football's most intense rivalries. Over their last 10 encounters, Liverpool have generally held the upper hand, though Everton have proven capable of producing upsets. The most recent clash on February 12, 2025, ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw at Goodison Park, suggesting Everton are closing the competitive gap.
Merseyside Derby - Recent Meetings
Date
Match
Result
Venue
Feb 12, 2025
Everton vs Liverpool
2-2
Goodison Park
Apr 24, 2024
Everton vs Liverpool
2-0
Goodison Park
Oct 21, 2023
Liverpool vs Everton
2-0
Anfield
Feb 13, 2023
Liverpool vs Everton
2-0
Anfield
Sep 3, 2022
Everton vs Liverpool
0-0
Goodison Park
Recent Merseyside Derby Analysis
2
Liverpool Wins
2
Draws
1
Everton Wins
Team News and Tactics
Liverpool will likely field their strongest available eleven as they push to maintain their lead at the top of the table. Mohamed Salah remains their key attacking threat, having consistently delivered in big matches this season. The midfield trio of Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Ryan Gravenberch provides both defensive solidity and creative flair.
Everton face some injury concerns with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil, and Orel Mangala doubtful for the clash. Moyes will likely employ a compact defensive approach with quick counter-attacks through the pace of players like Jack Harrison, while Jordan Pickford's experience in goal will be crucial against Liverpool's attacking prowess.
Match Odds Analysis
The betting market heavily favors Liverpool, reflecting their dominant position in the league table and home advantage. However, the unpredictable nature of derby matches and Everton's recent improvement under Moyes suggest potential value in certain markets.
Match Odds Analysis
Average Match Odds
Liverpool Win
Decimal: 1.40
Fractional: 4/10
American: -250
71% implied probability
Draw
Decimal: 4.80
Fractional: 19/5
American: +380
21% implied probability
Everton Win
Decimal: 8.00
Fractional: 7/1
American: +700
12% implied probability
Additional Markets
Market
Selection
Decimal Odds
Total Goals
Over 2.5
1.80
Total Goals
Under 2.5
2.00
Handicap
Liverpool -1.25
1.85
Handicap
Everton +1.25
2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
1.95
Both Teams to Score
No
1.85
Value Betting Opportunities
Under 2.5 Goals (2.00)
Four of Liverpool's last six matches have featured under 2.5 goals, while 83% of Everton's recent away games have followed the same pattern.
Everton +1.25 Handicap (2.00)
Everton's improved resilience under Moyes and their ability to frustrate opponents make this an attractive option. The Toffees have drawn four of their last four Premier League matches.
Draw HT/Liverpool FT (3.80)
Liverpool have shown a tendency to wear down opponents in the second half. This pattern offers value given Everton's likely approach of keeping things tight early on.
Liverpool Win & Under 2.5 Goals (4.50)
This combination provides excellent value, reflecting both Liverpool's superiority and the potential for a tight, tactical encounter.
Statistical Comparison
Statistical Comparison
Metric
Liverpool
Everton
League Position
1st
15th
Points
70
34
Wins
21
7
Draws
7
12
Losses
1
9
Goals Scored
69
32
Goals Conceded
27
41
Clean Sheets
11
7
Average Possession
64.2%
43.8%
Shots per Game
16.0
9.2
Pass Success Rate
86.3%
77.1%
Home Win Rate
78%
35%
Goals Per Match
Liverpool2.38
Everton1.10
Goals Conceded Per Match
Liverpool0.93
Everton1.41
Home vs Away Performance Metrics
Home vs Away Performance Metrics
Liverpool at Anfield vs Everton Away
Metric
Liverpool (Home)
Everton (Away)
Matches Played
14
14
Wins
11
3
Draws
2
5
Losses
1
6
Goals Scored
Prediction
While Liverpool remain clear favorites, this Merseyside derby is likely to be more competitive than the odds suggest. Everton's organization under Moyes will make them difficult to break down, but Liverpool's superior quality should eventually tell.
Match Prediction
Predicted Score
2
Liverpool
vs
0
Everton
Predicted: Liverpool 2-0 Everton
Key Factors
Liverpool's Home Advantage
The Reds have won 11 of 14 home matches this season, scoring 39 goals while conceding just 11. Their 78.6% win rate at Anfield is formidable.
Everton's Away Struggles
Everton have only managed 3 wins from 14 away matches, with just 12 goals scored and 22 conceded. Their 21.4% win rate away from home is concerning.
Derby History
Liverpool have won their last two home derbies 2-0. The fixture has historically been low-scoring when played at Anfield.
Title Ambitions
Liverpool's championship aspirations will provide extra motivation to secure all three points, particularly after their recent defeat to Newcastle.
Match Flow Prediction
First Half
Expect a tight, tactical opening 45 minutes with Everton setting up defensively to frustrate Liverpool. Few clear-cut chances with the half potentially ending 0-0.
Second Half
Liverpool's superior quality should eventually tell as Everton tire. Expect the Reds to break through after the interval, potentially adding a second goal in the latter stages.
Historical Derby Goal Distribution
Goals Scored
Frequency (Last 10)
Percentage
0
2
20%
1
4
40%
2
8
80%
3+
6
60%
The Reds' home advantage and championship ambitions will likely prove decisive, though Everton will make them work hard for the victory. Expect a tight first half followed by Liverpool finding the breakthrough after the interval as Everton eventually tire.
Recent Form Comparison
Recent Form Comparison
Liverpool
W
Match 1
W
Match 2
W
Match 3
D
Match 4
L
Match 5
Goals Scored
9
Goals Conceded
5
Clean Sheets
2
Liverpool enter this derby following a surprising 2-1 defeat to Newcastle United that may have slightly dented their confidence.
Everton
D
Match 1
D
Match 2
D
Match 3
W
Match 4
D
Match 5
Goals Scored
6
Goals Conceded
6
Clean Sheets
0
The Toffees have been difficult to beat in recent weeks, stringing together a series of draws that has helped them maintain distance from the relegation zone.
Form Comparison At A Glance
Win Rate (Last 5)
Liverpool 60%
Everton 20%
Goals Per Match (Last 5)
Liverpool 1.8
Everton 1.2
Historical Derby Goal Distribution
Historical Derby Goal Distribution
Goals Scored
Frequency (Last 10)
Percentage
Visualization
0
2
20%
1
4
40%
2
8
80%
3+
6
60%
Goal Distribution Analysis
0 Goals 20%
1 Goal 40%
2 Goals 80%
3+ Goals 60%
Key Insights
80% of the last 10 Merseyside derbies have featured exactly 2 goals.
60% of matches have seen 3 or more goals scored in total.
Only 20% of recent derbies have ended goalless.
The data suggests that a scoreline featuring 2 goals is historically the most likely outcome.
Recent fixtures at Anfield have ended 2-0 to Liverpool, aligning with these statistical trends.
Analysis points to a Liverpool victory, though potentially by a narrower margin than their league positions might suggest. The value lies in backing a low-scoring Liverpool win or hedging with Everton receiving a handicap advantage.
